Fiorentina 2–2 Sassuolo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Fiorentina

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Sassuolo

12/19/2021

Serie A · Round 18Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Fiorentina51%

×Draw24%

Sassuolo25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchSassuolo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.11

Fiorentina

1.68

Sassuolo

1.11

Fiorentina creates 51% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 29 away

1.70

creates per match

1.16

1.06

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Fiorentina

1.70

Sassuolo

1.16

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.06

Sassuolo

1.66

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Fiorentina-0.55scores less

Sassuolo-0.09on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Sassuolo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

75%

Fiorentina or Sassuolo

76%

Draw or Sassuolo

49%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

27%

Sassuolo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

81%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

50%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

24%

Sassuolo 1+ goals

67%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

30%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

67%

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.06 · 26 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.66 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.70 + Sassuolo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.68

Sassuolo attack 1.16 + Fiorentina defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fiorentina scores more

51%

level

24%

Sassuolo scores more

25%

Fiorentina at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff