Fiorentina 1–3 Sassuolo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Fiorentina

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Sassuolo

P. Cutrone 90'

M. Muldur 61'

G. Defrel 35', 24' (pen)

7/1/2020

Serie A · Round 29Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Fiorentina50%

×Draw24%

Sassuolo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchSassuolo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.12

Fiorentina

1.67

Sassuolo

1.12

Fiorentina creates 49% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

1.70

creates per match

1.23

1.01

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Fiorentina

1.70

Sassuolo

1.23

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.01

Sassuolo

1.64

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Fiorentina-0.55scores less

Sassuolo+0.01on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Sassuolo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

74%

Fiorentina or Sassuolo

76%

Draw or Sassuolo

50%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

27%

Sassuolo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

81%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

50%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

23%

Sassuolo 1+ goals

67%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

31%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

66%

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.01 · 34 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.64 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.70 + Sassuolo defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sassuolo attack 1.23 + Fiorentina defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fiorentina scores more

50%

level

24%

Sassuolo scores more

26%

Fiorentina at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Grégoire Defrel

Sassuolo · F

8.0

Match Events

4'

Rogerio

24'

G. DefrelPenalty

35'

G. Defrel↳ F. Djuricic

43'

H. Traore

44'

E. Pulgar

46'

Rogerio← G. Kyriakopoulos

46'

H. Traore← D. Berardi

50'

F. Ceccherini

51'

P. Lirola← P. Cutrone

61'

M. Muldur

62'

M. Locatelli← M. Bourabia

63'

G. Castrovilli

64'

F. Ceccherini← Igor

64'

G. Castrovilli← A. Duncan

65'

F. Ribery← R. Sottil

73'

R. Ghezzal

75'

R. Ghezzal← M. Benassi

81'

G. Defrel← F. Caputo

84'

R.

87'

F. Djuricic← A. Ghion

90'

P. Cutrone↳ A. Duncan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FiorentinaSassuolo

Overview

51%Possession49%

13Total Shots10

8Corners3

20Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots10

5On Target7

5Off Target1

3Blocked2

11Inside Box6

2Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

421Total Passes418

365Accurate Passes346

87%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

20Fouls12

4Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3