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Fiorentina vs Sassuolo — Serie A 2026

Fiorentina
Fiorentina
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
4/29/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 34Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Fiorentina50%
×Draw24%
Sassuolo26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentina
1.67
Sassuolo
1.12

Fiorentina creates 49% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Fiorentina
1.70
Sassuolo
1.23

allows per match

Fiorentina
1.01
Sassuolo
1.64

finishing

Fiorentina-0.55scores less
Sassuolo+0.01on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Sassuolo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw
74%
Fiorentina or Sassuolo
76%
Draw or Sassuolo
50%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+
27%
Sassuolo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals
81%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
50%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
23%
Sassuolo 1+ goals
67%
Sassuolo 2+ goals
31%
Sassuolo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)
66%
Sassuolo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.01 · 34 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.64 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.70 + Sassuolo defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sassuolo attack 1.23 + Fiorentina defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fiorentina scores more
50%
level
24%
Sassuolo scores more
26%

Fiorentina at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fiorentina vs Sassuolo

Sassuolo beat Fiorentina 1-0 in Serie A on April 29, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Florence.