Fiorentina 0–0 Napoli: Result & Stats | Serie A

Fiorentina

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Napoli

8/28/2022

Serie A · Round 3Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Fiorentina38%

×Draw27%

Napoli34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchNapoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.19

Fiorentina

1.27

Napoli

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 25 away

1.66

creates per match

1.37

1.01

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Fiorentina

1.66

Napoli

1.37

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.01

Napoli

0.89

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Fiorentina-0.53scores less

Napoli+0.07on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Napoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

66%

Fiorentina or Napoli

73%

Draw or Napoli

62%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

17%

Napoli wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

72%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

36%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

14%

Napoli 1+ goals

70%

Napoli 2+ goals

33%

Napoli 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

53%

Napoli (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.01 · 30 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.89 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.66 + Napoli defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.27

Napoli attack 1.37 + Fiorentina defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fiorentina scores more

38%

level

27%

Napoli scores more

34%

Fiorentina at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Meret

Napoli · G

8.2

Match Events

3'

Frank Anguissa

59'

C. Kouamé← J. Ikoné

60'

Lucas Martínez Quarta

61'

G. Raspadori← K. Kvaratskhelia

61'

E. Elmas← P. Zieliński

68'

Luka Jović

68'

Y. Maleh← G. Bonaventura

69'

Igor← L. Martínez

71'

M. Politano← H. Lozano

78'

G. Simeone← V. Osimhen

78'

T. Ndombélé← S. Lobotka

80'

R. Saponara← R. Sottil

80'

A. Terzić← C. Biraghi

90+3'

Tanguy Ndombélé

90'

Giacomo Raspadori

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FiorentinaNapoli

Overview

49%Possession51%

10Total Shots13

2Corners3

12Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots13

5On Target2

4Off Target5

1Blocked6

6Inside Box10

4Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

469Total Passes495

391Accurate Passes424

83%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2