Fiorentina 0–2 Napoli: Result & Stats | Serie A

Fiorentina

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Napoli

L. Venuti 67' (OG)

L. Insigne 56'

5/16/2021

Serie A · Round 37Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Fiorentina38%

×Draw27%

Napoli35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchNapoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.21

Fiorentina

1.29

Napoli

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 32 away

1.70

creates per match

1.42

1.01

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Fiorentina

1.70

Napoli

1.42

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.01

Napoli

0.89

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Fiorentina-0.55scores less

Napoli+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Napoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

65%

Fiorentina or Napoli

73%

Draw or Napoli

62%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

17%

Napoli wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

72%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

37%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

14%

Napoli 1+ goals

70%

Napoli 2+ goals

34%

Napoli 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

53%

Napoli (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.01 · 34 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.89 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.70 + Napoli defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.29

Napoli attack 1.42 + Fiorentina defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fiorentina scores more

38%

level

27%

Napoli scores more

35%

Fiorentina at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

L. Insigne

Napoli · M

8.2

Match Events

-5'

-5'

21'

31'

43'

49'

54'

Amir RrahmaniGoal cancelled

56'

L. Insigne

61'

Gaetano Castrovilli

66'

Igor← C. Biraghi

66'

V. Eysseric← G. Castrovilli

67'

L. VenutiOwn goal

76'

H. Lozano← M. Politano

77'

José Callejón← G. Bonaventura

77'

D. Mertens← P. Zieliński

79'

Germán Pezzella

83'

C. Kouamé← F. Ribéry

84'

A. Petagna← V. Osimhen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FiorentinaNapoli

Overview

40%Possession60%

7Total Shots21

3Corners6

15Fouls9

Shots

7Total Shots21

3On Target6

3Off Target8

1Blocked7

5Inside Box10

2Outside Box11

Passing

40%Possession60%

324Total Passes476

266Accurate Passes416

82%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls9

5Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2