Fiorentina 1–1 Monza: Result & Stats | Serie A

Fiorentina

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Monza

Arthur Cabral 19'

Carlos Augusto 61'

1/4/2023

Serie A · Round 16Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Fiorentina50%

×Draw24%

Monza26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchMonza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.11

Fiorentina

1.65

Monza

1.11

Fiorentina creates 49% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 8 away

1.72

creates per match

1.16

1.06

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Fiorentina

1.72

Monza

1.16

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.06

Monza

1.57

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Fiorentina-0.53scores less

Monza+0.34scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Monza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

74%

Fiorentina or Monza

76%

Draw or Monza

50%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

26%

Monza wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

81%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

49%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

23%

Monza 1+ goals

67%

Monza 2+ goals

30%

Monza 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

66%

Monza (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.06 · 27 matches

Monza away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.57 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.72 + Monza defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.65

Monza attack 1.16 + Fiorentina defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fiorentina scores more

50%

level

24%

Monza scores more

26%

Fiorentina at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

98

Igor

Fiorentina · D

7.7

Match Events

19'

Arthur Cabral↳ L. Martínez

46'

A. Petagna← A. Colpani

46'

S. Birindelli← G. Caprari

57'

Igor Júlio

61'

Carlos Augusto↳ P. Ciurria

62'

José Machín← F. Ranocchia

64'

S. Amrabat← A. Bianco

64'

C. Kouamé← R. Saponara

67'

Pablo Marí← L. Caldirola

79'

G. Bonaventura← A. Barák

82'

S. Vignato← P. Ciurria

86'

Samuele Birindelli

86'

L. Jović← Arthur Cabral

86'

G. Castrovilli← A. Duncan

88'

José Machín

90+2'

Andrea Petagna

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FiorentinaMonza

Overview

53%Possession47%

22Total Shots10

9Corners1

11Fouls13

Shots

22Total Shots10

6On Target3

10Off Target5

6Blocked2

15Inside Box10

7Outside Box0

Passing

53%Possession47%

417Total Passes382

349Accurate Passes297

84%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides4