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Fiorentina vs Lecce — Serie A 2026

Fiorentina
Fiorentina
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lecce
Lecce
A. Gallo 27' (OG)
3/19/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 27Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Fiorentina55%
×Draw25%
Lecce20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentina
1.63
Lecce
0.88

Fiorentina creates 85% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 34 away

creates per match

Fiorentina
1.69
Lecce
0.73

allows per match

Fiorentina
1.02
Lecce
1.57

finishing

Fiorentina-0.55scores less
Lecce-0.20scores less

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Lecce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw
80%
Fiorentina or Lecce
75%
Draw or Lecce
45%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+
30%
Lecce wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals
80%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
48%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
22%
Lecce 1+ goals
59%
Lecce 2+ goals
22%
Lecce 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)
73%
Lecce (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.02 · 29 matches

Lecce away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.69 + Lecce defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.63

Lecce attack 0.73 + Fiorentina defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Fiorentina scores more
55%
level
25%
Lecce scores more
20%

Fiorentina at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
C. BiraghiFiorentinaFiorentina · D
7.9

Match Events

25'
Alexis Blin
27'
A. GalloOwn goal
63'
Igor Júlio
70'
Arthur Cabral← C. Kouamé
70'
R. Sottil← R. Saponara
70'
R. Oudin← Gabriel Strefezza
70'
Y. Maleh← A. Blin
72'
Youssef Maleh
77'
Þ. Helgason← JoanGonzàlez
78'
T. Cassandro← V. Gendrey
83'
A. Ceesay← L. Colombo
85'
G. Bonaventura← A. Barák
85'
A. Duncan← R. Mandragora
85'
J. Ikoné← N. González
89'
Samuel Umtiti

Possession

59%Fiorentina

Shots

18Fiorentina

Pass accuracy

54%Fiorentina

Statistics

FiorentinaLecce
Overview
59%Possession41%
18Total Shots8
1.25Expected Goals (xG)0.56
1Corners3
14Fouls21
Shots
18Total Shots8
3On Target2
10Off Target2
5Blocked4
10Inside Box8
8Outside Box0
Passing
59%Possession41%
464Total Passes315
383Accurate Passes219
83%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls21
1Yellow Cards3
2Offsides2

Serie A: Fiorentina 1–0 Lecce

Fiorentina beat Lecce 1-0 in Serie A on March 19, 2023.

Goals: A. Gallo (27' o.g.).

Fiorentina controlled possession (59%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Firenze.