Fiorentina 1–1 Juventus: Result & Stats | Serie A

Fiorentina

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Juventus

C. Kouamé 29'

A. Milik 9'

9/3/2022

Serie A · Round 5Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Fiorentina40%

×Draw26%

Juventus34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchJuventus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.24

Fiorentina

1.36

Juventus

1.24

Fiorentina creates 10% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 34 away

1.71

creates per match

1.47

1.01

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Fiorentina

1.71

Juventus

1.47

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.01

Juventus

1.01

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Fiorentina-0.55scores less

Juventus-0.09on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Juventus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

66%

Fiorentina or Juventus

74%

Draw or Juventus

60%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

18%

Juventus wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

74%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

39%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

16%

Juventus 1+ goals

71%

Juventus 2+ goals

35%

Juventus 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

54%

Juventus (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.01 · 32 matches

Juventus away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.01 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.71 + Juventus defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.36

Juventus attack 1.47 + Fiorentina defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fiorentina scores more

40%

level

26%

Juventus scores more

34%

Fiorentina at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

C. Kouamé

Fiorentina · F

7.9

Match Events

9'

15'

29'

33'

43'

DodôPenalty confirmed

46'

M. De Sciglio← Á. Di María

52'

Manuel Locatelli

53'

Danilo

54'

L. Martínez← N. Milenković

62'

R. Mandragora← Y. Maleh

62'

J. Ikoné← C. Kouamé

64'

F. Miretti← J. Cuadrado

64'

M. Kean← F. Kostić

78'

Arthur Cabral← L. Jović

78'

L. Bonucci← Alex Sandro

79'

S. Żurkowski← A. Barák

83'

N. Fagioli← L. Paredes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FiorentinaJuventus

Overview

60%Possession40%

17Total Shots4

10Corners2

13Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots4

5On Target1

6Off Target2

6Blocked1

12Inside Box3

5Outside Box1

Passing

60%Possession40%

479Total Passes341

435Accurate Passes290

91%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1