Fiorentina 2–0 Juventus: Result & Stats | Serie A

Fiorentina

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Juventus

N. González 90+2' (pen)

A. Duncan 45+1'

5/21/2022

Serie A · Round 38Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Fiorentina39%

×Draw26%

Juventus34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchJuventus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.25

Fiorentina

1.35

Juventus

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 34 away

1.69

creates per match

1.47

1.02

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Fiorentina

1.69

Juventus

1.47

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.02

Juventus

1.01

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Fiorentina-0.53scores less

Juventus-0.09on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Juventus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

66%

Fiorentina or Juventus

74%

Draw or Juventus

61%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

18%

Juventus wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

74%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

39%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

15%

Juventus 1+ goals

71%

Juventus 2+ goals

36%

Juventus 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

53%

Juventus (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.02 · 31 matches

Juventus away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.01 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.69 + Juventus defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.35

Juventus attack 1.47 + Fiorentina defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fiorentina scores more

39%

level

26%

Juventus scores more

34%

Fiorentina at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

C. Biraghi

Fiorentina · D

7.7

Match Events

44'

Igor Júlio

44'

Moise Kean

45+1'

A. Duncan↳ G. Bonaventura

46'

D. Rugani← G. Chiellini

46'

C. Pinsoglio← M. Perin

56'

Lorenzo Venuti

56'

Adrien Rabiot

60'

M. Aké← F. Bernardeschi

62'

Odriozola← L. Venuti

70'

Sofyan Amrabat

70'

J. Ikoné← R. Saponara

76'

W. McKennie← F. Miretti

76'

D. Vlahović← M. Kean

84'

Matthijs de Ligt

85'

L. Torreira← A. Duncan

85'

Arthur Cabral← K. Piątek

90+2'

N. GonzálezPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FiorentinaJuventus

Overview

66%Possession34%

13Total Shots1

6Corners2

13Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots1

4On Target0

5Off Target0

4Blocked1

9Inside Box1

4Outside Box0

Passing

66%Possession34%

665Total Passes351

599Accurate Passes289

90%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3