Fiorentina 3–4 Inter: Result & Stats | Serie A

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchInter

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.33

Fiorentina

1.41

Inter

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 32 away

1.70

creates per match

1.59

1.06

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Fiorentina

1.70

Inter

1.59

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.06

Inter

1.11

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

Fiorentina-0.55scores less

Inter+0.44scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Inter →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

65%

Fiorentina or Inter

74%

Draw or Inter

61%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

18%

Inter wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

76%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

41%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

17%

Inter 1+ goals

74%

Inter 2+ goals

38%

Inter 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

52%

Inter (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.06 · 26 matches

Inter away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.11 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.70 + Inter defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.41

Inter attack 1.59 + Fiorentina defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fiorentina scores more

39%

level

26%

Inter scores more

35%

Fiorentina at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Lautaro Martínez

Inter · F

9.3

Match Events

2'

N. Barella↳ Lautaro Martínez

8'

J. Ikoné← N. González

15'

Lautaro Martínez

31'

Giacomo BonaventuraPenalty confirmed

33'

Arthur CabralPenalty

35'

35'

38'

52'

54'

56'

60'

61'

67'

D. Dumfries← M. Darmian

67'

R. Gosens← F. Dimarco

72'

Lautaro MartínezPenalty confirmed

73'

Lautaro MartínezPenalty

79'

Nikola Milenković

82'

L. Venuti← Dodô

82'

A. Terzić← C. Biraghi

83'

A. Barák← S. Amrabat

85'

R. Bellanova← Lautaro Martínez

88'

Denzel Dumfries

90'

L. Jović↳ N. Milenković

90+5'

H. Mkhitaryan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FiorentinaInter

Overview

58%Possession42%

10Total Shots8

1Corners2

15Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots8

4On Target7

4Off Target1

2Blocked0

6Inside Box8

4Outside Box0

Passing

58%Possession42%

489Total Passes344

403Accurate Passes252

82%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls14

4Yellow Cards3

0Offsides4