Fiorentina 1–3 Inter: Result & Stats | Serie A

Fiorentina

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Inter

R. Sottil 23'

I. Perišić 87'

E. Džeko 55'

M. Darmian 52'

9/21/2021

Serie A · Round 5Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Fiorentina38%

×Draw25%

Inter37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchInter

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.38

Fiorentina

1.40

Inter

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 34 away

1.70

creates per match

1.69

1.06

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Fiorentina

1.70

Inter

1.69

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.06

Inter

1.10

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Fiorentina-0.55scores less

Inter+0.28scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Inter →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

63%

Fiorentina or Inter

75%

Draw or Inter

62%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

17%

Inter wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

75%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

41%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

17%

Inter 1+ goals

75%

Inter 2+ goals

40%

Inter 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

51%

Inter (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.06 · 26 matches

Inter away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.10 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.70 + Inter defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.40

Inter attack 1.69 + Fiorentina defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fiorentina scores more

38%

level

25%

Inter scores more

37%

Fiorentina at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

I. Perišić

Inter · M

7.9

Match Events

17'

Milan Škriniar

23'

R. Sottil↳ N. González

52'

M. Darmian↳ N. Barella

55'

E. Džeko↳ H. Çalhanoğlu

63'

Matteo Darmian

65'

S. Amrabat← L. Torreira

66'

Odriozola← M. Benassi

66'

D. Dumfries← M. Darmian

70'

A. Sánchez← E. Džeko

70'

M. Vecino← N. Barella

74'

R. Saponara← R. Sottil

78'

78'

78'

83'

83'

F. Dimarco← Lautaro Martínez

84'

A. Kokorin← G. Bonaventura

84'

José Callejón← A. Duncan

84'

R. Gagliardini← H. Çalhanoğlu

87'

I. Perišić↳ R. Gagliardini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FiorentinaInter

Overview

53%Possession47%

14Total Shots17

4Corners8

11Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots17

6On Target5

6Off Target7

2Blocked5

5Inside Box13

9Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

497Total Passes429

434Accurate Passes366

87%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Serie A: Fiorentina 1–3 Inter

Inter beat Fiorentina 3-1 in Serie A on September 21, 2021.

Goals: R. Sottil (23'), M. Darmian (52'), E. Džeko (55'), I. Perišić (87').

Fiorentina controlled possession (53%) and registered 14 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Firenze.

Fiorentina vs Inter — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Fiorentina 1–3 Inter