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Fiorentina vs Inter — Serie A 2026

Fiorentina
Fiorentina
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Inter
Inter
2/5/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 21Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Fiorentina38%
×Draw25%
Inter36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentina
1.41
Inter
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 36 away

creates per match

Fiorentina
1.70
Inter
1.72

allows per match

Fiorentina
1.01
Inter
1.12

finishing

Fiorentina-0.55scores less
Inter+0.31scores more

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Inter →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw
64%
Fiorentina or Inter
75%
Draw or Inter
62%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+
18%
Inter wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals
76%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
41%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
17%
Inter 1+ goals
74%
Inter 2+ goals
39%
Inter 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)
52%
Inter (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.01 · 34 matches

Inter away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.12 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.70 + Inter defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.41

Inter attack 1.72 + Fiorentina defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fiorentina scores more
38%
level
25%
Inter scores more
36%

Fiorentina at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Fiorentina 0–2 Inter

Inter beat Fiorentina 2-0 in Serie A on February 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Firenze.