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Fiorentina vs Empoli — Serie A 2026

Fiorentina
Fiorentina
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Empoli
Empoli
B. Dabo 78'
G. Simeone 59'
K. Mirallas 40'
R. Krunić 23'
12/16/2018Serie ASerie A · Round 16Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Fiorentina58%
×Draw24%
Empoli18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentina
1.72
Empoli
0.85

Fiorentina creates 102% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 8 away

creates per match

Fiorentina
1.70
Empoli
0.70

allows per match

Fiorentina
1.01
Empoli
1.74

finishing

Fiorentina-0.55scores less
Empoli+0.30scores more

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Empoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw
82%
Fiorentina or Empoli
76%
Draw or Empoli
42%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+
32%
Empoli wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals
82%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
51%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
25%
Empoli 1+ goals
57%
Empoli 2+ goals
21%
Empoli 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)
76%
Empoli (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.01 · 34 matches

Empoli away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.74 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.70 + Empoli defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.72

Empoli attack 0.70 + Fiorentina defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Fiorentina scores more
58%
level
24%
Empoli scores more
18%

Fiorentina at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
K. MirallasFiorentinaFiorentina · F
8.3

Match Events

23'
R. Krunić↳ F. Caputo
40'
K. Mirallas↳ G. Simeone
53'
Marco Benassi
53'
L. Capezzi← I. Bennacer
55'
Rade Krunić
59'
G. Simeone
65'
Gerson
71'
J. Untersee← L. Antonelli
72'
M. Zajc← H. Traorè
75'
V. Eysseric← K. Mirallas
75'
B. Dabo← C. Nørgaard
78'
B. Dabo
90+3'
D. Hancko← C. Biraghi

Possession

59%Fiorentina

Shots

21Fiorentina

Pass accuracy

53%Fiorentina

Statistics

FiorentinaEmpoli
Overview
59%Possession41%
21Total Shots11
2Corners3
20Fouls18
Shots
21Total Shots11
8On Target4
10Off Target4
3Blocked3
11Inside Box9
10Outside Box2
Passing
59%Possession41%
481Total Passes316
400Accurate Passes235
83%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
20Fouls18
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Fiorentina vs Empoli

Fiorentina beat Empoli 3-1 in Serie A on December 16, 2018.

Goals: R. Krunić (23'), K. Mirallas (40'), G. Simeone (59'), B. Dabo (78').

Fiorentina controlled possession (59%) and registered 21 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Florence.