Fiorentina 3–2 Cremonese: Result & Stats | Serie A

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchCremonese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.87

Fiorentina

1.68

Cremonese

0.87

Fiorentina creates 93% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 19 away

1.70

creates per match

0.70

1.04

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Fiorentina

1.70

Cremonese

0.70

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.04

Cremonese

1.66

-0.56scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Fiorentina-0.56scores less

Cremonese+0.04on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Cremonese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

81%

Fiorentina or Cremonese

76%

Draw or Cremonese

44%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

31%

Cremonese wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

81%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

50%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

24%

Cremonese 1+ goals

58%

Cremonese 2+ goals

22%

Cremonese 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

74%

Cremonese (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.04 · 28 matches

Cremonese away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.66 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.70 + Cremonese defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.68

Cremonese attack 0.70 + Fiorentina defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Fiorentina scores more

56%

level

24%

Cremonese scores more

19%

Fiorentina at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

C. Biraghi

Fiorentina · D

7.9

Match Events

9'

Vlad Chiricheş

16'

G. Bonaventura↳ C. Kouamé

19'

D. Okereke↳ P. Ghiglione

34'

L. Jović↳ R. Sottil

43'

Gonzalo Escalante

46'

S. Ascacíbar← V. Chiricheș

46'

G. Quagliata← L. Sernicola

62'

Paolo Ghiglione

65'

C. Buonaiuto← C. Pickel

68'

M. Bianchetti

71'

S. Żurkowski← Y. Maleh

71'

Dodô← M. Benassi

78'

R. Saponara← C. Kouamé

78'

R. Mandragora← S. Amrabat

82'

David Okereke

82'

E. Aiwu← P. Ghiglione

86'

N. González← R. Sottil

87'

S. Di Carmine← D. Okereke

90+5'

R. Mandragora↳ S. Żurkowski

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FiorentinaCremonese

Overview

75%Possession25%

28Total Shots13

11Corners4

10Fouls19

Shots

28Total Shots13

11On Target4

7Off Target3

10Blocked6

21Inside Box9

7Outside Box4

Passing

75%Possession25%

569Total Passes191

507Accurate Passes121

89%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

Discipline

10Fouls19

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1