Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fiorentina vs Cagliari — Serie A 2026

Fiorentina
Fiorentina
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cagliari
Cagliari
D. Vlahović 72'
1/10/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 17Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Fiorentina53%
×Draw24%
Cagliari22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentina
1.69
Cagliari
1.00

Fiorentina creates 69% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 25 away

creates per match

Fiorentina
1.70
Cagliari
0.95

allows per match

Fiorentina
1.06
Cagliari
1.67

finishing

Fiorentina-0.55scores less
Cagliari-0.03on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Cagliari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw
78%
Fiorentina or Cagliari
76%
Draw or Cagliari
47%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+
29%
Cagliari wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals
82%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
50%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
24%
Cagliari 1+ goals
63%
Cagliari 2+ goals
26%
Cagliari 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)
71%
Cagliari (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.06 · 26 matches

Cagliari away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.70 + Cagliari defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Cagliari attack 0.95 + Fiorentina defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fiorentina scores more
53%
level
24%
Cagliari scores more
22%

Fiorentina at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

69
B. DrągowskiFiorentinaFiorentina · G
7.9

Match Events

25'
Dušan VlahovićGoal cancelled
38'
L. Martínez← G. Pezzella
53'
Christian Oliva
72'
D. Vlahović↳ José Callejón
74'
L. Venuti← M. Cáceres
77'
Cristiano Biraghi
79'
G. Zappa← F. Pisacane
80'
L. Pavoletti← G. Simeone
80'
A. Ounas← R. Nainggolan
82'
C. Kouamé← D. Vlahović
82'
Borja Valero← José Callejón
85'
A. Cerri← C. Oliva
86'
Matteo Tramoni
86'
M. Tramoni← R. Sottil
90'
Leonardo Pavoletti

Possession

51%Fiorentina

Shots

14Fiorentina

Pass accuracy

51%Fiorentina

Statistics

FiorentinaCagliari
Overview
51%Possession49%
14Total Shots9
9Corners5
15Fouls14
Shots
14Total Shots9
4On Target2
7Off Target4
3Blocked3
8Inside Box5
6Outside Box4
Passing
51%Possession49%
433Total Passes419
358Accurate Passes335
83%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls14
1Yellow Cards3
4Offsides1

Serie A: Fiorentina 1–0 Cagliari

Fiorentina beat Cagliari 1-0 in Serie A on January 10, 2021.

Goals: D. Vlahović (72').

Fiorentina controlled possession (51%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Firenze.