Fiorentina 2–0 AS Roma: Result & Stats | Serie A

Fiorentina

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

AS Roma

G. Bonaventura 11'

N. González 5' (pen)

5/9/2022

Serie A · Round 36Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Fiorentina45%

×Draw25%

AS Roma29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchAS Roma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.19

Fiorentina

1.54

AS Roma

1.19

Fiorentina creates 29% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 24 away

1.71

creates per match

1.36

1.01

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Fiorentina

1.71

AS Roma

1.36

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.01

AS Roma

1.37

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Fiorentina-0.55scores less

AS Roma-0.11scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

AS Roma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

71%

Fiorentina or AS Roma

75%

Draw or AS Roma

55%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

23%

AS Roma wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

79%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

45%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

20%

AS Roma 1+ goals

70%

AS Roma 2+ goals

33%

AS Roma 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

61%

AS Roma (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.01 · 32 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.37 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.71 + AS Roma defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.54

AS Roma attack 1.36 + Fiorentina defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fiorentina scores more

45%

level

25%

AS Roma scores more

29%

Fiorentina at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

N. González

Fiorentina · F

7.9

Match Events

3'

Nicolás GonzálezPenalty awarded

5'

N. GonzálezPenalty

11'

G. Bonaventura↳ Arthur Cabral

19'

Sofyan Amrabat

24'

Gianluca Mancini

28'

Giacomo Bonaventura

46'

N. Zaniolo← Sérgio Oliveira

49'

Alfred Duncan

66'

S. El Shaarawy← N. Zalewski

75'

Carles Pérez← L. Pellegrini

76'

Y. Maleh← G. Bonaventura

76'

K. Piątek← Arthur Cabral

90'

R. Saponara← J. Ikoné

90'

José Callejón← N. González

90+1'

A. Terzić← C. Biraghi

90'

E. Shomurodov← T. Abraham

90'

L. Spinazzola← R. Karsdorp

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FiorentinaAS

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots7

5Corners3

16Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots7

7On Target1

3Off Target4

2Blocked2

6Inside Box4

6Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

525Total Passes441

454Accurate Passes366

86%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1