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Fiorentina vs AS Roma — Serie A 2026

Fiorentina
Fiorentina
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
AS Roma
AS Roma
J. Veretout 32' (pen)
A. Florenzi 85'
11/3/2018Serie ASerie A · Round 11Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Fiorentina45%
×Draw26%
AS Roma29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentina
1.51
AS Roma
1.16

Fiorentina creates 30% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 28 away

creates per match

Fiorentina
1.70
AS Roma
1.30

allows per match

Fiorentina
1.01
AS Roma
1.32

finishing

Fiorentina-0.55scores less
AS Roma-0.05on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw
71%
Fiorentina or AS Roma
74%
Draw or AS Roma
55%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+
23%
AS Roma wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals
78%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
44%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
19%
AS Roma 1+ goals
69%
AS Roma 2+ goals
32%
AS Roma 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)
61%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.01 · 34 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.70 + AS Roma defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.51

AS Roma attack 1.30 + Fiorentina defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fiorentina scores more
45%
level
26%
AS Roma scores more
29%

Fiorentina at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
GersonFiorentinaFiorentina · M
7.4

Match Events

28'
Steven​ N'Zonzi
32'
J. VeretoutPenalty
36'
Federico Fazio
53'
E. Fernandes← K. Mirallas
55'
J. Kluivert← S. El Shaarawy
67'
Cristiano Biraghi
67'
B. Cristante← N. Zaniolo
73'
B. Dabo← M. Benassi
74'
P. Schick← C. Ünder
77'
Jordan Veretout
78'
M. Pjaca← G. Simeone
85'
A. Florenzi
87'
Lorenzo Pellegrini
89'
Vitor Hugo

Possession

37%Fiorentina

Shots

14Fiorentina

Pass accuracy

45%Fiorentina

Statistics

FiorentinaAS
Overview
37%Possession63%
14Total Shots19
3Corners6
11Fouls21
Shots
14Total Shots19
3On Target4
8Off Target8
3Blocked7
3Inside Box13
11Outside Box6
Passing
37%Possession63%
285Total Passes464
191Accurate Passes375
67%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls21
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Fiorentina vs AS Roma

Fiorentina and AS Roma drew 1-1 in Serie A on November 3, 2018.

Goals: J. Veretout (32' pen), A. Florenzi (85').

AS Roma controlled possession (63%) and registered 19 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Florence.