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Fiorentina U20 vs Parma U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Fiorentina U20
Fiorentina U20
Preview
09:00
Parma U20
Parma U20
10/10/2026Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 6
Big match
45%
Fiorentina U20
model favours
45%24%31%

Fiorentina U20 raise their game against the top half — 62% wins vs the upper half, only 50% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Fiorentina U2045%
×Draw24%
Parma U2031%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentina U20
1.62
Parma U20
1.30

Fiorentina U20 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 20 away

creates per match

Fiorentina U20
2.24
Parma U20
1.40

allows per match

Fiorentina U20
1.21
Parma U20
1.00

finishing

Fiorentina U20+0.00on par
Parma U20+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina U20 ↓

Parma U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Fiorentina U20 or draw
69%
Fiorentina U20 or Parma U20
76%
Draw or Parma U20
55%

Winning margin

Fiorentina U20 wins by 2+
23%
Parma U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fiorentina U20 1+ goals
80%
Fiorentina U20 2+ goals
48%
Fiorentina U20 3+ goals
22%
Parma U20 1+ goals
73%
Parma U20 2+ goals
37%
Parma U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina U20 (draw refunded)
59%
Parma U20 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina U20 at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Parma U20 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina U20 attack 2.24 + Parma U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.62

Parma U20 attack 1.40 + Fiorentina U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fiorentina U20 scores more
45%
level
24%
Parma U20 scores more
31%

Fiorentina U20 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fiorentina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Top-of-the-table clash — Fiorentina U20 1 vs Parma U20 2
  • Parma U20 win just 30% against the top half (vs 67% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 3 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
WWLWW
U20
LWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fiorentina U20 face Parma U20 (Campionato Primavera - 1)

Campionato Primavera - 1 returns with Fiorentina U20 hosting Parma U20. Match starts October 10, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.