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Fiorentina U20 vs Lecce U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Fiorentina U20
Fiorentina U20
Preview
10:00
Lecce U20
Lecce U20
1/23/2027Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 21
52%
Fiorentina U20
model favours
52%22%26%

Lecce U20 have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Fiorentina U2052%
×Draw22%
Lecce U2026%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentina U20
1.98
Lecce U20
1.34

Fiorentina U20 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 38 away

creates per match

Fiorentina U20
2.24
Lecce U20
1.47

allows per match

Fiorentina U20
1.21
Lecce U20
1.71

finishing

Fiorentina U20+0.00on par
Lecce U20+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina U20 ↓

Lecce U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Fiorentina U20 or draw
74%
Fiorentina U20 or Lecce U20
78%
Draw or Lecce U20
48%

Winning margin

Fiorentina U20 wins by 2+
30%
Lecce U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fiorentina U20 1+ goals
86%
Fiorentina U20 2+ goals
59%
Fiorentina U20 3+ goals
31%
Lecce U20 1+ goals
74%
Lecce U20 2+ goals
39%
Lecce U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina U20 (draw refunded)
67%
Lecce U20 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina U20 at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Lecce U20 away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina U20 attack 2.24 + Lecce U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.98

Lecce U20 attack 1.47 + Fiorentina U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fiorentina U20 scores more
52%
level
22%
Lecce U20 scores more
26%

Fiorentina U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fiorentina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Fiorentina U20 raise their game against the top half — 62% wins vs the upper half, only 50% vs the lower
  • Lecce U20 raise their game against the top half — 39% wins vs the upper half, only 29% vs the lower
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
WWLWW
U20
WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fiorentina U20 face Lecce U20 (Campionato Primavera - 1)

Campionato Primavera - 1 returns with Fiorentina U20 hosting Lecce U20. Match starts January 23, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.