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Fiorentina U20 vs Lazio U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Fiorentina U20
Fiorentina U20
Preview
10:00
Lazio U20
Lazio U20
2/6/2027Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 23
53%
Fiorentina U20
model favours
53%24%23%

Fiorentina U20 have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Fiorentina U2053%
×Draw24%
Lazio U2023%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentina U20
1.70
Lazio U20
1.05

Fiorentina U20 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 38 away

creates per match

Fiorentina U20
2.24
Lazio U20
0.89

allows per match

Fiorentina U20
1.21
Lazio U20
1.16

finishing

Fiorentina U20+0.00on par
Lazio U20+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina U20 ↓

Lazio U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Fiorentina U20 or draw
77%
Fiorentina U20 or Lazio U20
76%
Draw or Lazio U20
47%

Winning margin

Fiorentina U20 wins by 2+
29%
Lazio U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fiorentina U20 1+ goals
82%
Fiorentina U20 2+ goals
51%
Fiorentina U20 3+ goals
24%
Lazio U20 1+ goals
65%
Lazio U20 2+ goals
28%
Lazio U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina U20 (draw refunded)
69%
Lazio U20 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina U20 at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Lazio U20 away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.16 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina U20 attack 2.24 + Lazio U20 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.70

Lazio U20 attack 0.89 + Fiorentina U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fiorentina U20 scores more
53%
level
24%
Lazio U20 scores more
23%

Fiorentina U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fiorentina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Fiorentina U20 sit 1, Lazio U20 14 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
WWLWW
U20
LLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Fiorentina U20 host Lazio U20

February 6, 2027: Fiorentina U20 take on Lazio U20 in Campionato Primavera - 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.