Fiorentina U20 vs Juventus U20

Fiorentina U20

Preview

10:00

Juventus U20

2/20/2027

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 25

Big match

51%

Fiorentina U20

model favours

51%22%27%

Fiorentina U20 have won 4 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

64%

over 2.5 goals

63%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Fiorentina U2051%

×Draw22%

Juventus U2027%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fiorentina U20Expected goals in this matchJuventus U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.35

Fiorentina U20

1.94

Juventus U20

1.35

Fiorentina U20 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 39 away

2.24

creates per match

1.49

1.21

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Fiorentina U20

2.24

Juventus U20

1.49

allows per match

Fiorentina U20

1.21

Juventus U20

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fiorentina U20+0.00on par

Juventus U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina U20 ↓

Juventus U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Fiorentina U20 or draw

73%

Fiorentina U20 or Juventus U20

78%

Draw or Juventus U20

49%

Winning margin

Fiorentina U20 wins by 2+

29%

Juventus U20 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fiorentina U20 1+ goals

86%

Fiorentina U20 2+ goals

58%

Fiorentina U20 3+ goals

30%

Juventus U20 1+ goals

74%

Juventus U20 2+ goals

39%

Juventus U20 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina U20 (draw refunded)

66%

Juventus U20 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina U20 at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Juventus U20 away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.64 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina U20 attack 2.24 + Juventus U20 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.94

Juventus U20 attack 1.49 + Fiorentina U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fiorentina U20 scores more

51%

level

22%

Juventus U20 scores more

27%

Fiorentina U20 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fiorentina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Fiorentina U20 raise their game against the top half — 62% wins vs the upper half, only 50% vs the lower
Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U20

WWLWW

U20

WWDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff