Finn Harps 1–1 Cork City: Result & Stats

Finn Harps

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cork City

2/23/2024

First Division · Round 2Finn Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Finn Harps25%

×Draw26%

Cork City49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Finn HarpsExpected goals in this matchCork City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.46

Finn Harps

0.96

Cork City

1.46

Cork City creates 52% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 58 away

1.18

creates per match

1.59

1.32

allows per match

0.74

creates per match

Finn Harps

1.18

Cork City

1.59

allows per match

Finn Harps

1.32

Cork City

0.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Finn Harps+0.00on par

Cork City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finn Harps ↓

Cork City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Finn Harps or draw

51%

Finn Harps or Cork City

74%

Draw or Cork City

75%

Winning margin

Finn Harps wins by 2+

9%

Cork City wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Finn Harps 1+ goals

62%

Finn Harps 2+ goals

25%

Finn Harps 3+ goals

7%

Cork City 1+ goals

77%

Cork City 2+ goals

43%

Cork City 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Finn Harps (draw refunded)

34%

Cork City (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finn Harps at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.32 · 66 matches

Cork City away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.74 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finn Harps attack 1.18 + Cork City defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.96

Cork City attack 1.59 + Finn Harps defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Finn Harps scores more

25%

level

26%

Cork City scores more

49%

Cork City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cork City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff