Finn Harps 2–0 Athlone Town: Result & Stats

Finn Harps

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Athlone Town

3/1/2024

First Division · Round 3Finn Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Finn Harps45%

×Draw25%

Athlone Town29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Finn HarpsExpected goals in this matchAthlone Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.18

Finn Harps

1.53

Athlone Town

1.18

Finn Harps creates 30% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 119 away

1.18

creates per match

1.04

1.32

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Finn Harps

1.18

Athlone Town

1.04

allows per match

Finn Harps

1.32

Athlone Town

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Finn Harps+0.00on par

Athlone Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finn Harps ↓

Athlone Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Finn Harps or draw

71%

Finn Harps or Athlone Town

75%

Draw or Athlone Town

55%

Winning margin

Finn Harps wins by 2+

23%

Athlone Town wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Finn Harps 1+ goals

78%

Finn Harps 2+ goals

45%

Finn Harps 3+ goals

20%

Athlone Town 1+ goals

69%

Athlone Town 2+ goals

33%

Athlone Town 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Finn Harps (draw refunded)

61%

Athlone Town (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finn Harps at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.32 · 66 matches

Athlone Town away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.88 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finn Harps attack 1.18 + Athlone Town defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.53

Athlone Town attack 1.04 + Finn Harps defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Finn Harps scores more

45%

level

25%

Athlone Town scores more

29%

Finn Harps at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Finn Harps will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff