Figueres 2–2 Sant Andreu: Result & Stats

Figueres

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Sant Andreu

9/11/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 3Estadio Municipal de Vilatenim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Figueres29%

×Draw26%

Sant Andreu44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FigueresExpected goals in this matchSant Andreu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.42

Figueres

1.10

Sant Andreu

1.42

Sant Andreu creates 29% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 57 away

1.04

creates per match

1.47

1.36

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Figueres

1.04

Sant Andreu

1.47

allows per match

Figueres

1.36

Sant Andreu

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Figueres+0.00on par

Sant Andreu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Figueres ↓

Sant Andreu →

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Figueres or draw

56%

Figueres or Sant Andreu

74%

Draw or Sant Andreu

71%

Winning margin

Figueres wins by 2+

11%

Sant Andreu wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Figueres 1+ goals

67%

Figueres 2+ goals

30%

Figueres 3+ goals

10%

Sant Andreu 1+ goals

76%

Sant Andreu 2+ goals

41%

Sant Andreu 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Figueres (draw refunded)

40%

Sant Andreu (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Figueres at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

Sant Andreu away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Figueres attack 1.04 + Sant Andreu defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.10

Sant Andreu attack 1.47 + Figueres defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Figueres scores more

29%

level

26%

Sant Andreu scores more

44%

Sant Andreu at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sant Andreu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff