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Figueres vs Granollers — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Figueres
Figueres
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Granollers
Granollers
10/6/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 7Estadio Municipal de Vilatenim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Figueres33%
×Draw26%
Granollers41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Figueres
1.22
Granollers
1.40

Granollers creates 15% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 43 away

creates per match

Figueres
1.04
Granollers
1.44

allows per match

Figueres
1.36
Granollers
1.40

finishing

Figueres+0.00on par
Granollers+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Figueres ↓

Granollers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Figueres or draw
59%
Figueres or Granollers
74%
Draw or Granollers
67%

Winning margin

Figueres wins by 2+
14%
Granollers wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Figueres 1+ goals
70%
Figueres 2+ goals
34%
Figueres 3+ goals
12%
Granollers 1+ goals
75%
Granollers 2+ goals
41%
Granollers 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Figueres (draw refunded)
44%
Granollers (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Figueres at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

Granollers away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Figueres attack 1.04 + Granollers defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.22

Granollers attack 1.44 + Figueres defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Figueres scores more
33%
level
26%
Granollers scores more
41%

Granollers at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Granollers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Figueres 1–0 Granollers

Figueres beat Granollers 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Vilatenim in Figueras.