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FH hafnarfjordur vs Vikingur Reykjavik — Úrvalsdeild 2025

FH hafnarfjordur
FH hafnarfjordur
Preview
18:00
Vikingur Reykjavik
Vikingur Reykjavik
8/16/2026ÚrvalsdeildÚrvalsdeild · Round 19Kaplakriki
48%
Vikingur Reykjavik
model favours
30%22%48%

FH hafnarfjordur are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FH hafnarfjordur30%
×Draw22%
Vikingur Reykjavik48%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FH hafnarfjordur
1.45
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.88

Vikingur Reykjavik creates 30% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 22 away

creates per match

FH hafnarfjordur
1.85
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.36

allows per match

FH hafnarfjordur
1.41
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.05

finishing

FH hafnarfjordur+0.00on par
Vikingur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FH hafnarfjordur ↓

Vikingur Reykjavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

FH hafnarfjordur or draw
52%
FH hafnarfjordur or Vikingur Reykjavik
78%
Draw or Vikingur Reykjavik
70%

Winning margin

FH hafnarfjordur wins by 2+
14%
Vikingur Reykjavik wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

FH hafnarfjordur 1+ goals
77%
FH hafnarfjordur 2+ goals
42%
FH hafnarfjordur 3+ goals
18%
Vikingur Reykjavik 1+ goals
85%
Vikingur Reykjavik 2+ goals
56%
Vikingur Reykjavik 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

FH hafnarfjordur (draw refunded)
39%
Vikingur Reykjavik (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FH hafnarfjordur at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

Vikingur Reykjavik away — creates 2.36, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FH hafnarfjordur attack 1.85 + Vikingur Reykjavik defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.45

Vikingur Reykjavik attack 2.36 + FH hafnarfjordur defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FH hafnarfjordur scores more
30%
level
22%
Vikingur Reykjavik scores more
48%

Vikingur Reykjavik at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vikingur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Vikingur Reykjavik have won 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • 67% of Vikingur Reykjavik’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (62% and 67% over 2.5)
  • 41% of Vikingur Reykjavik’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • FH hafnarfjordur sit 11, Vikingur Reykjavik 1 in the table
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
hafnarfjordur
WDDDW
Reykjavik
DWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FH hafnarfjordur vs Vikingur Reykjavik — Match Preview

FH hafnarfjordur face Vikingur Reykjavik on August 16, 2026 in this Úrvalsdeild fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FH hafnarfjordur host Vikingur Reykjavik at Kaplakriki.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.