FF Jaro 1–1 AC Kajaani: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

FF Jaro

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

AC Kajaani

6/16/2019

Ykkönen · Round 5Jakobstads Centralplan (Pietarsaaren Keskuskenttä) (Pietarsaari (Jacobstad))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

FF Jaro51%

×Draw21%

AC Kajaani27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FF JaroExpected goals in this matchAC Kajaani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.45

FF Jaro

2.06

AC Kajaani

1.45

FF Jaro creates 42% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 39 away

1.95

creates per match

1.64

1.26

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

FF Jaro

1.95

AC Kajaani

1.64

allows per match

FF Jaro

1.26

AC Kajaani

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FF Jaro+0.00on par

AC Kajaani+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FF Jaro ↓

AC Kajaani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

FF Jaro or draw

73%

FF Jaro or AC Kajaani

79%

Draw or AC Kajaani

49%

Winning margin

FF Jaro wins by 2+

30%

AC Kajaani wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FF Jaro 1+ goals

87%

FF Jaro 2+ goals

61%

FF Jaro 3+ goals

34%

AC Kajaani 1+ goals

77%

AC Kajaani 2+ goals

42%

AC Kajaani 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

FF Jaro (draw refunded)

65%

AC Kajaani (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FF Jaro at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.26 · 81 matches

AC Kajaani away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FF Jaro attack 1.95 + AC Kajaani defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.06

AC Kajaani attack 1.64 + FF Jaro defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FF Jaro scores more

51%

level

21%

AC Kajaani scores more

27%

FF Jaro at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FF Jaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff