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Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen — Eredivisie 2018

Feyenoord
Feyenoord
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
NEC Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen
1/14/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 17Stadion Feijenoord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Feyenoord54%
×Draw22%
NEC Nijmegen24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feyenoord
1.94
NEC Nijmegen
1.23

Feyenoord creates 58% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

creates per match

Feyenoord
2.15
NEC Nijmegen
1.36

allows per match

Feyenoord
1.09
NEC Nijmegen
1.74

finishing

Feyenoord-0.15scores less
NEC Nijmegen+0.24scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feyenoord ↓

NEC Nijmegen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Feyenoord or draw
76%
Feyenoord or NEC Nijmegen
78%
Draw or NEC Nijmegen
46%

Winning margin

Feyenoord wins by 2+
31%
NEC Nijmegen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Feyenoord 1+ goals
86%
Feyenoord 2+ goals
58%
Feyenoord 3+ goals
30%
NEC Nijmegen 1+ goals
71%
NEC Nijmegen 2+ goals
35%
NEC Nijmegen 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Feyenoord (draw refunded)
69%
NEC Nijmegen (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feyenoord at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.09 · 13 matches

NEC Nijmegen away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.74 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feyenoord attack 2.15 + NEC Nijmegen defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.94

NEC Nijmegen attack 1.36 + Feyenoord defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Feyenoord scores more
54%
level
22%
NEC Nijmegen scores more
24%

Feyenoord at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Feyenoord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: Feyenoord 2–2 NEC Nijmegen

Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen drew 2-2 in Eredivisie on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Feijenoord in Rotterdam.