Feyenoord U21 3–2 Go Ahead Eagles U21

Feyenoord U21

FT

3 – 2

Go Ahead Eagles U21

1/27/2024

U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 6Sportcomplex Varkenoord 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Feyenoord U2160%

×Draw19%

Go Ahead Eagles U2121%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Feyenoord U21Expected goals in this matchGo Ahead Eagles U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.35

Feyenoord U21

2.37

Go Ahead Eagles U21

1.35

Feyenoord U21 creates 76% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 35 away

2.54

creates per match

1.43

1.28

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Feyenoord U21

2.54

Go Ahead Eagles U21

1.43

allows per match

Feyenoord U21

1.28

Go Ahead Eagles U21

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Feyenoord U21+0.00on par

Go Ahead Eagles U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feyenoord U21 ↓

Go Ahead Eagles U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Feyenoord U21 or draw

79%

Feyenoord U21 or Go Ahead Eagles U21

81%

Draw or Go Ahead Eagles U21

40%

Winning margin

Feyenoord U21 wins by 2+

38%

Go Ahead Eagles U21 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Feyenoord U21 1+ goals

91%

Feyenoord U21 2+ goals

68%

Feyenoord U21 3+ goals

42%

Go Ahead Eagles U21 1+ goals

74%

Go Ahead Eagles U21 2+ goals

39%

Go Ahead Eagles U21 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Feyenoord U21 (draw refunded)

74%

Go Ahead Eagles U21 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feyenoord U21 at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

Go Ahead Eagles U21 away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.20 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feyenoord U21 attack 2.54 + Go Ahead Eagles U21 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.37

Go Ahead Eagles U21 attack 1.43 + Feyenoord U21 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Feyenoord U21 scores more

60%

level

19%

Go Ahead Eagles U21 scores more

21%

Feyenoord U21 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Feyenoord U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff