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Feutcheu vs Eding Sport — Elite One 2019

Feutcheu
Feutcheu
FT
3 – 1
Eding Sport
Eding Sport
10/27/2019Elite OneElite One · Round 3Stade Omnisports de Bafoussam

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Feutcheu38%
×Draw30%
Eding Sport32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feutcheu
1.11
Eding Sport
0.98

Feutcheu creates 13% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 54 away

creates per match

Feutcheu
1.09
Eding Sport
1.00

allows per match

Feutcheu
0.96
Eding Sport
1.13

finishing

Feutcheu+0.00on par
Eding Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feutcheu ↓

Eding Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Feutcheu or draw
68%
Feutcheu or Eding Sport
70%
Draw or Eding Sport
62%

Winning margin

Feutcheu wins by 2+
16%
Eding Sport wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Feutcheu 1+ goals
67%
Feutcheu 2+ goals
30%
Feutcheu 3+ goals
10%
Eding Sport 1+ goals
62%
Eding Sport 2+ goals
26%
Eding Sport 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Feutcheu (draw refunded)
55%
Eding Sport (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feutcheu at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.96 · 57 matches

Eding Sport away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feutcheu attack 1.09 + Eding Sport defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.11

Eding Sport attack 1.00 + Feutcheu defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Feutcheu scores more
38%
level
30%
Eding Sport scores more
32%

Feutcheu at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Feutcheu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Feutcheu vs Eding Sport

Feutcheu beat Eding Sport 3-1 in Elite One on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports de Bafoussam in Bafoussam.