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Ferroviária vs Maranhão — Serie C 2025

Ferroviária
Ferroviária
Preview
20:00
Maranhão
Maranhão
7/25/2026Serie CSerie C · Round 15Arena Fonte Luminosa
47%
Ferroviária
model favours
47%33%19%

Ferroviária score first in 64% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
77%
under 2.5 goals
29%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ferroviária47%
×Draw33%
Maranhão19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferroviária
1.07
Maranhão
0.57

Ferroviária creates 88% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Ferroviária
1.00
Maranhão
0.43

allows per match

Ferroviária
0.71
Maranhão
1.14

finishing

Ferroviária+0.00on par
Maranhão+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviária ↓

Maranhão →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
8%92%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Ferroviária or draw
81%
Ferroviária or Maranhão
67%
Draw or Maranhão
53%

Winning margin

Ferroviária wins by 2+
20%
Maranhão wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ferroviária 1+ goals
66%
Ferroviária 2+ goals
29%
Ferroviária 3+ goals
9%
Maranhão 1+ goals
43%
Maranhão 2+ goals
11%
Maranhão 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Ferroviária (draw refunded)
71%
Maranhão (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviária at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Maranhão away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviária attack 1.00 + Maranhão defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Maranhão attack 0.43 + Ferroviária defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ferroviária scores more
47%
level
33%
Maranhão scores more
19%

Ferroviária at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ferroviária will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 33% of Ferroviária’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Ferroviária and Maranhão have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ferroviária
WLLWW
Maranhão
WLDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ferroviária vs Maranhão — Match Preview

Ferroviária face Maranhão on July 25, 2026 in this Serie C fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ferroviária host Maranhão at Arena Fonte Luminosa.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.