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Ferroviária U20 vs União Suzano U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Ferroviária U20
Ferroviária U20
Preview
18:00
União Suzano U20
União Suzano U20
8/14/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 12
60%
Ferroviária U20
model favours
60%22%18%

53% of União Suzano U20’s goals come after the 75th minute

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Ferroviária U2060%
×Draw22%
União Suzano U2018%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferroviária U20
1.90
União Suzano U20
0.92

Ferroviária U20 creates 107% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 22 away

creates per match

Ferroviária U20
2.20
União Suzano U20
0.95

allows per match

Ferroviária U20
0.88
União Suzano U20
1.59

finishing

Ferroviária U20+0.00on par
União Suzano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 51No: 4951%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviária U20 ↓

União Suzano U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ferroviária U20 or draw
82%
Ferroviária U20 or União Suzano U20
78%
Draw or União Suzano U20
40%

Winning margin

Ferroviária U20 wins by 2+
36%
União Suzano U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ferroviária U20 1+ goals
85%
Ferroviária U20 2+ goals
56%
Ferroviária U20 3+ goals
29%
União Suzano U20 1+ goals
60%
União Suzano U20 2+ goals
23%
União Suzano U20 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ferroviária U20 (draw refunded)
77%
União Suzano U20 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviária U20 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

União Suzano U20 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviária U20 attack 2.20 + União Suzano U20 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.90

União Suzano U20 attack 0.95 + Ferroviária U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ferroviária U20 scores more
60%
level
22%
União Suzano U20 scores more
18%

Ferroviária U20 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ferroviária U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Ferroviária U20 sit 13, União Suzano U20 40 in the table
  • Ferroviária U20 and União Suzano U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
LWWDW
U20
LLLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ferroviária U20 face União Suzano U20 (Paulista - U20)

Paulista - U20 returns with Ferroviária U20 hosting União Suzano U20. Match starts August 14, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.