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Ferroviária U20 vs São Bento U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Ferroviária U20
Ferroviária U20
Preview
18:00
São Bento U20
São Bento U20
9/12/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 15
62%
Ferroviária U20
model favours
62%20%17%

Ferroviária U20 and São Bento U20 have never met before

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Ferroviária U2062%
×Draw20%
São Bento U2017%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferroviária U20
2.13
São Bento U20
1.03

Ferroviária U20 creates 107% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 21 away

creates per match

Ferroviária U20
2.20
São Bento U20
1.19

allows per match

Ferroviária U20
0.88
São Bento U20
2.05

finishing

Ferroviária U20+0.00on par
São Bento U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviária U20 ↓

São Bento U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ferroviária U20 or draw
83%
Ferroviária U20 or São Bento U20
80%
Draw or São Bento U20
38%

Winning margin

Ferroviária U20 wins by 2+
39%
São Bento U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ferroviária U20 1+ goals
88%
Ferroviária U20 2+ goals
63%
Ferroviária U20 3+ goals
35%
São Bento U20 1+ goals
64%
São Bento U20 2+ goals
28%
São Bento U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ferroviária U20 (draw refunded)
78%
São Bento U20 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviária U20 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

São Bento U20 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviária U20 attack 2.20 + São Bento U20 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.13

São Bento U20 attack 1.19 + Ferroviária U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ferroviária U20 scores more
62%
level
20%
São Bento U20 scores more
17%

Ferroviária U20 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ferroviária U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U20
LWWDW
U20
WDLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ferroviária U20 host São Bento U20

September 12, 2026: Ferroviária U20 take on São Bento U20 in Paulista - U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.