Ferroviária U20 vs Jabaquara U20

Ferroviária U20

Preview

18:00

Jabaquara U20

8/21/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 13

70%

Ferroviária U20

model favours

70%18%12%

Ferroviária U20 sit 13, Jabaquara U20 28 in the table

brightest fact of this match

2–0

likely score

58%

over 2.5 goals

49%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ferroviária U2070%

×Draw18%

Jabaquara U2012%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ferroviária U20Expected goals in this matchJabaquara U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

0.79

Ferroviária U20

2.22

Jabaquara U20

0.79

Ferroviária U20 creates 181% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 17 away

2.20

creates per match

0.71

0.88

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Ferroviária U20

2.20

Jabaquara U20

0.71

allows per match

Ferroviária U20

0.88

Jabaquara U20

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferroviária U20+0.00on par

Jabaquara U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviária U20 ↓

Jabaquara U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Ferroviária U20 or draw

88%

Ferroviária U20 or Jabaquara U20

82%

Draw or Jabaquara U20

30%

Winning margin

Ferroviária U20 wins by 2+

46%

Jabaquara U20 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Ferroviária U20 1+ goals

89%

Ferroviária U20 2+ goals

65%

Ferroviária U20 3+ goals

38%

Jabaquara U20 1+ goals

55%

Jabaquara U20 2+ goals

19%

Jabaquara U20 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ferroviária U20 (draw refunded)

85%

Jabaquara U20 (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviária U20 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

Jabaquara U20 away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviária U20 attack 2.20 + Jabaquara U20 defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.22

Jabaquara U20 attack 0.71 + Ferroviária U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Ferroviária U20 scores more

70%

level

18%

Jabaquara U20 scores more

12%

Ferroviária U20 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Ferroviária U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Ferroviária U20 and Jabaquara U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U20

LWWDW

U20

LDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff