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Ferro Carril Oeste LP vs Sol de Mayo — Torneo Federal A 2018

Ferro Carril Oeste LP
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
CANC
00:00
Sol de Mayo
Sol de Mayo
3/22/2020Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · South - 24Estadio Coloso de Barrio Talleres (General Pico, Provincia La Pampa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Ferro Carril Oeste LP49%
×Draw29%
Sol de Mayo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferro Carril Oeste LP
1.29
Sol de Mayo
0.75

Ferro Carril Oeste LP creates 72% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 112 away

creates per match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP
1.14
Sol de Mayo
0.62

allows per match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP
0.88
Sol de Mayo
1.44

finishing

Ferro Carril Oeste LP+0.00on par
Sol de Mayo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferro Carril Oeste LP ↓

Sol de Mayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ferro Carril Oeste LP or draw
78%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP or Sol de Mayo
71%
Draw or Sol de Mayo
51%

Winning margin

Ferro Carril Oeste LP wins by 2+
23%
Sol de Mayo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1+ goals
72%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2+ goals
37%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 3+ goals
14%
Sol de Mayo 1+ goals
53%
Sol de Mayo 2+ goals
17%
Sol de Mayo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ferro Carril Oeste LP (draw refunded)
69%
Sol de Mayo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferro Carril Oeste LP at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.88 · 85 matches

Sol de Mayo away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.44 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP attack 1.14 + Sol de Mayo defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sol de Mayo attack 0.62 + Ferro Carril Oeste LP defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ferro Carril Oeste LP scores more
49%
level
29%
Sol de Mayo scores more
22%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ferro Carril Oeste LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ferro Carril Oeste LP host Sol de Mayo

March 22, 2020: Ferro Carril Oeste LP take on Sol de Mayo in Torneo Federal A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ferro Carril Oeste LP host Sol de Mayo at Estadio Coloso de Barrio Talleres (General Pico, Provincia La Pampa).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.