Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1–1 Huracan Las Heras

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Huracan Las Heras

M. Loboa 88'

A. Ramos 59'

6/11/2022

Torneo Federal A · Group A - 13Estadio Coloso de Barrio Talleres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Ferro Carril Oeste LP47%

×Draw30%

Huracan Las Heras23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ferro Carril Oeste LPExpected goals in this matchHuracan Las Heras

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.78

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

1.24

Huracan Las Heras

0.78

Ferro Carril Oeste LP creates 59% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 110 away

1.16

creates per match

0.67

0.88

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

1.16

Huracan Las Heras

0.67

allows per match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

0.88

Huracan Las Heras

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferro Carril Oeste LP+0.00on par

Huracan Las Heras+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferro Carril Oeste LP ↓

Huracan Las Heras →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ferro Carril Oeste LP or draw

77%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP or Huracan Las Heras

70%

Draw or Huracan Las Heras

53%

Winning margin

Ferro Carril Oeste LP wins by 2+

21%

Huracan Las Heras wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1+ goals

71%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2+ goals

35%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 3+ goals

13%

Huracan Las Heras 1+ goals

54%

Huracan Las Heras 2+ goals

18%

Huracan Las Heras 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ferro Carril Oeste LP (draw refunded)

67%

Huracan Las Heras (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferro Carril Oeste LP at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.88 · 82 matches

Huracan Las Heras away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.32 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP attack 1.16 + Huracan Las Heras defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.24

Huracan Las Heras attack 0.67 + Ferro Carril Oeste LP defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ferro Carril Oeste LP scores more

47%

level

30%

Huracan Las Heras scores more

23%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ferro Carril Oeste LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'

F. Vasilchik← B. Noriega

54'

T. Silva← I. Sabatini

59'

A. Ramos

65'

M. Loboa← F. Heredia

65'

A. Ramírez← M. Bolteau

69'

G. Leiva← J. Peñaloza

78'

E. Lescano← M. Gelabert

78'

N. Millán← G. Torres

86'

F. Ojeda← O. Chiquichano

86'

E. Tejada← A. Ramos

86'

F. Biasutti← M. Navarro

88'

M. Loboa

Ferro

Huracan

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Giganti

54'▲F. Vasilchik←▼B. Noriega

65'▲M. Loboa←▼F. Heredia

65'▲A. Ramírez←▼M. Bolteau

78'▲E. Lescano←▼M. Gelabert

78'▲N. Millán←▼G. Torres

Ferro Carril Oeste LP substitutes

VasilchikLoboaRamírezLescanoMillán

Manager: M. Minich

54'▲T. Silva←▼I. Sabatini

69'▲G. Leiva←▼J. Peñaloza

86'▲F. Ojeda←▼O. Chiquichano

86'▲E. Tejada←▼A. Ramos

86'▲F. Biasutti←▼M. Navarro

Huracan Las Heras substitutes

SilvaLeivaOjedaTejadaBiasutti

Torneo Federal A: Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1–1 Huracan Las Heras

Ferro Carril Oeste LP and Huracan Las Heras drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on June 11, 2022.

Goals: A. Ramos (59'), M. Loboa (88').

The match was played at Estadio Coloso de Barrio Talleres in General Pico, Provincia La Pampa.

Ferro Carril Oeste LP vs Huracan Las Heras — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Torneo Federal A: Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1–1 Huracan Las Heras