Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1–3 Argentino Monte Maíz

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Argentino Monte Maíz

F. Vasilchik 6'

G. Sánchez 76'

C. González 42'

M. Barbero 33'

4/30/2023

Torneo Federal A · Group A - 8Estadio Coloso de Barrio Talleres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Ferro Carril Oeste LP41%

×Draw30%

Argentino Monte Maíz29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ferro Carril Oeste LPExpected goals in this matchArgentino Monte Maíz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.90

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

1.15

Argentino Monte Maíz

0.90

Ferro Carril Oeste LP creates 28% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 71 away

1.16

creates per match

0.92

0.88

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

1.16

Argentino Monte Maíz

0.92

allows per match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP

0.88

Argentino Monte Maíz

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferro Carril Oeste LP+0.00on par

Argentino Monte Maíz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferro Carril Oeste LP ↓

Argentino Monte Maíz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ferro Carril Oeste LP or draw

71%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP or Argentino Monte Maíz

70%

Draw or Argentino Monte Maíz

59%

Winning margin

Ferro Carril Oeste LP wins by 2+

18%

Argentino Monte Maíz wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1+ goals

68%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2+ goals

32%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP 3+ goals

11%

Argentino Monte Maíz 1+ goals

59%

Argentino Monte Maíz 2+ goals

23%

Argentino Monte Maíz 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ferro Carril Oeste LP (draw refunded)

59%

Argentino Monte Maíz (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferro Carril Oeste LP at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.88 · 82 matches

Argentino Monte Maíz away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.14 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferro Carril Oeste LP attack 1.16 + Argentino Monte Maíz defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Argentino Monte Maíz attack 0.92 + Ferro Carril Oeste LP defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ferro Carril Oeste LP scores more

41%

level

30%

Argentino Monte Maíz scores more

29%

Ferro Carril Oeste LP at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ferro Carril Oeste LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

33'

42'

46'

57'

H. Vera Oviedo← I. Amaya

57'

R. Meyer← F. Rassol

65'

T. Hernández← C. Cocchi

65'

F. Olmos← C. González

65'

M. Bustamante← M. Gutiérrez

72'

B. Noriega← J. Requena

76'

G. Vega← M. Rapetti

76'

E. Tellechea← M. Guerreiro

76'

G. Sánchez

Ferro

Argentino

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: A. Matteo

46'▲T. Álvarez←▼F. Pérez

65'▲T. Hernández←▼C. Cocchi

72'▲B. Noriega←▼J. Requena

76'▲G. Vega←▼M. Rapetti

Ferro Carril Oeste LP substitutes

ÁlvarezHernándezNoriegaVega

Manager: C. Mazzola

57'▲H. Vera Oviedo←▼I. Amaya

57'▲R. Meyer←▼F. Rassol

65'▲F. Olmos←▼C. González

65'▲M. Bustamante←▼M. Gutiérrez

76'▲E. Tellechea←▼M. Guerreiro

Argentino Monte Maíz substitutes

OviedoMeyerOlmosBustamanteTellechea

Torneo Federal A: Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1–3 Argentino Monte Maíz

Argentino Monte Maíz beat Ferro Carril Oeste LP 3-1 in Torneo Federal A on April 30, 2023.

Goals: F. Vasilchik (6'), M. Barbero (33'), C. González (42'), G. Sánchez (76').

The match was played at Estadio Coloso de Barrio Talleres in General Pico, Provincia La Pampa.

Ferro Carril Oeste LP vs Argentino Monte Maíz — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Torneo Federal A: Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1–3 Argentino Monte Maíz