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Fernwald vs Hanau 93 — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Fernwald
Fernwald
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Hanau 93
Hanau 93
11/11/2023Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 17Kunstrasenplatz Fernwald-Steinbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Fernwald53%
×Draw21%
Hanau 9326%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fernwald
2.17
Hanau 93
1.49

Fernwald creates 46% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 92 away

creates per match

Fernwald
2.12
Hanau 93
1.48

allows per match

Fernwald
1.50
Hanau 93
2.21

finishing

Fernwald+0.00on par
Hanau 93+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernwald ↓

Hanau 93 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Fernwald or draw
74%
Fernwald or Hanau 93
79%
Draw or Hanau 93
47%

Winning margin

Fernwald wins by 2+
32%
Hanau 93 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fernwald 1+ goals
89%
Fernwald 2+ goals
64%
Fernwald 3+ goals
36%
Hanau 93 1+ goals
77%
Hanau 93 2+ goals
44%
Hanau 93 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Fernwald (draw refunded)
67%
Hanau 93 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernwald at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

Hanau 93 away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.21 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernwald attack 2.12 + Hanau 93 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.17

Hanau 93 attack 1.48 + Fernwald defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fernwald scores more
53%
level
21%
Hanau 93 scores more
26%

Fernwald at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fernwald will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hessen: Fernwald 1–4 Hanau 93

Hanau 93 beat Fernwald 4-1 in Oberliga - Hessen on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Fernwald-Steinbach in Fernwald.