Fénix 1–0 Dock Sud: Result & Stats

Fénix

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dock Sud

R. Monti 90+2'

4/3/2023

Primera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 8Estadio José Manuel Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Fénix33%

×Draw30%

Dock Sud38%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FénixExpected goals in this matchDock Sud

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.11

Fénix

1.01

Dock Sud

1.11

Dock Sud creates 10% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 87 away

0.82

creates per match

0.99

1.23

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Fénix

0.82

Dock Sud

0.99

allows per match

Fénix

1.23

Dock Sud

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fénix+0.00on par

Dock Sud+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fénix ↓

Dock Sud →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Fénix or draw

62%

Fénix or Dock Sud

70%

Draw or Dock Sud

67%

Winning margin

Fénix wins by 2+

12%

Dock Sud wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Fénix 1+ goals

64%

Fénix 2+ goals

27%

Fénix 3+ goals

8%

Dock Sud 1+ goals

67%

Dock Sud 2+ goals

30%

Dock Sud 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fénix (draw refunded)

46%

Dock Sud (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fénix at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.23 · 136 matches

Dock Sud away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.21 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fénix attack 0.82 + Dock Sud defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.01

Dock Sud attack 0.99 + Fénix defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fénix scores more

33%

level

30%

Dock Sud scores more

38%

Dock Sud at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

44'

56'

56'

61'

N. Pérez← D. Pérez Roa

61'

R. Monti← G. Mackay

61'

D. Monzón← S. Modón

71'

C. Acosta← R. Ovejero

82'

F. Ulayar

86'

J. Roth← M. Blanco

90+2'

R. Monti

Fénix

Dock

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Della Picca

61'▲N. Pérez←▼D. Pérez Roa

61'▲R. Monti←▼G. Mackay

71'▲C. Acosta←▼R. Ovejero

Fénix substitutes

PérezMontiAcosta

Manager: C. Tula

56'▲M. Blanco←▼T. Pavone

56'▲S. Vivas←▼T. Gaitán

61'▲D. Monzón←▼S. Modón

86'▲J. Roth←▼M. Blanco

Dock Sud substitutes

BlancoVivasMonzónRoth