Fenerbahçe 1–1 Başakşehir: Result & Stats

Fenerbahçe

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Başakşehir

2/9/2021

Türkiye Kupası · Quarter-finalsÜlker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fenerbahçe52%

×Draw24%

Başakşehir24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FenerbahçeExpected goals in this matchBaşakşehir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.09

Fenerbahçe

1.70

Başakşehir

1.09

Fenerbahçe creates 56% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

2.25

creates per match

1.54

0.65

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Fenerbahçe

2.25

Başakşehir

1.54

allows per match

Fenerbahçe

0.65

Başakşehir

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fenerbahçe+0.00on par

Başakşehir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fenerbahçe ↓

Başakşehir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Fenerbahçe or draw

76%

Fenerbahçe or Başakşehir

76%

Draw or Başakşehir

48%

Winning margin

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+

28%

Başakşehir wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals

82%

Fenerbahçe 2+ goals

51%

Fenerbahçe 3+ goals

24%

Başakşehir 1+ goals

66%

Başakşehir 2+ goals

30%

Başakşehir 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)

68%

Başakşehir (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fenerbahçe at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Başakşehir away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fenerbahçe attack 2.25 + Başakşehir defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.70

Başakşehir attack 1.54 + Fenerbahçe defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fenerbahçe scores more

52%

level

24%

Başakşehir scores more

24%

Fenerbahçe at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff