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Feldkirchen Kärnten vs Lendorf — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Feldkirchen Kärnten
Feldkirchen Kärnten
FT
2 – 0
Lendorf
Lendorf
8/28/2020Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 5Sportplatz Feldkirchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Feldkirchen Kärnten39%
×Draw25%
Lendorf36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.48
Lendorf
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 89 away

creates per match

Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.45
Lendorf
1.53

allows per match

Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.31
Lendorf
1.51

finishing

Feldkirchen Kärnten+0.00on par
Lendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feldkirchen Kärnten ↓

Lendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Feldkirchen Kärnten or draw
64%
Feldkirchen Kärnten or Lendorf
75%
Draw or Lendorf
61%

Winning margin

Feldkirchen Kärnten wins by 2+
19%
Lendorf wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Feldkirchen Kärnten 1+ goals
77%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 2+ goals
43%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 3+ goals
19%
Lendorf 1+ goals
76%
Lendorf 2+ goals
41%
Lendorf 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Feldkirchen Kärnten (draw refunded)
52%
Lendorf (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feldkirchen Kärnten at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.31 · 49 matches

Lendorf away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.51 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feldkirchen Kärnten attack 1.45 + Lendorf defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.48

Lendorf attack 1.53 + Feldkirchen Kärnten defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Feldkirchen Kärnten scores more
39%
level
25%
Lendorf scores more
36%

Feldkirchen Kärnten at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Feldkirchen Kärnten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Feldkirchen Kärnten 2 – 0 Lendorf

Feldkirchen Kärnten beat Lendorf 2-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on August 28, 2020.

The match was played at Sportplatz Feldkirchen in Feldkirchen.