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Feldkirchen Kärnten vs Gmünd — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Feldkirchen Kärnten
Feldkirchen Kärnten
CANC
21:00
Gmünd
Gmünd
5/3/2020Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 23Sportplatz Feldkirchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Feldkirchen Kärnten47%
×Draw25%
Gmünd29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.62
Gmünd
1.22

Feldkirchen Kärnten creates 33% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 48 away

creates per match

Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.45
Gmünd
1.13

allows per match

Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.31
Gmünd
1.79

finishing

Feldkirchen Kärnten+0.00on par
Gmünd+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feldkirchen Kärnten ↓

Gmünd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Feldkirchen Kärnten or draw
71%
Feldkirchen Kärnten or Gmünd
75%
Draw or Gmünd
53%

Winning margin

Feldkirchen Kärnten wins by 2+
24%
Gmünd wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Feldkirchen Kärnten 1+ goals
80%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 2+ goals
48%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 3+ goals
22%
Gmünd 1+ goals
70%
Gmünd 2+ goals
34%
Gmünd 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Feldkirchen Kärnten (draw refunded)
62%
Gmünd (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feldkirchen Kärnten at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.31 · 49 matches

Gmünd away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.79 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feldkirchen Kärnten attack 1.45 + Gmünd defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.62

Gmünd attack 1.13 + Feldkirchen Kärnten defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Feldkirchen Kärnten scores more
47%
level
25%
Gmünd scores more
29%

Feldkirchen Kärnten at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Feldkirchen Kärnten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Feldkirchen Kärnten vs Gmünd — Match Preview

Feldkirchen Kärnten face Gmünd on May 3, 2020 in this Landesliga - Karnten fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Feldkirchen Kärnten host Gmünd at Sportplatz Feldkirchen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.