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Feirense U19 vs Vizela U19 — League #1041 2026

Feirense U19
Feirense U19
Preview
14:00
Vizela U19
Vizela U19
10/11/2026League #1041League #1041 · Round 7
41%
Feirense U19
model favours
41%23%36%

Feirense U19 and Vizela U19 have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Feirense U1941%
×Draw23%
Vizela U1936%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feirense U19
1.73
Vizela U19
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Feirense U19
1.20
Vizela U19
1.50

allows per match

Feirense U19
1.70
Vizela U19
2.25

finishing

Feirense U19+0.00on par
Vizela U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feirense U19 ↓

Vizela U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Feirense U19 or draw
64%
Feirense U19 or Vizela U19
77%
Draw or Vizela U19
59%

Winning margin

Feirense U19 wins by 2+
21%
Vizela U19 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Feirense U19 1+ goals
82%
Feirense U19 2+ goals
52%
Feirense U19 3+ goals
25%
Vizela U19 1+ goals
80%
Vizela U19 2+ goals
47%
Vizela U19 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Feirense U19 (draw refunded)
54%
Vizela U19 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feirense U19 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Vizela U19 away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feirense U19 attack 1.20 + Vizela U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.73

Vizela U19 attack 1.50 + Feirense U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Feirense U19 scores more
41%
level
23%
Vizela U19 scores more
36%

Feirense U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Feirense U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U19
WWLLL
U19
W

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Feirense U19 vs Vizela U19 — Match Preview

Feirense U19 face Vizela U19 on October 11, 2026 in this League #1041 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.