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FCSB vs Uta Arad — Liga I 2026

FCSB
FCSB
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Uta Arad
Uta Arad
12/5/2020Liga ILiga I · Round 12Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

FCSB60%
×Draw21%
Uta Arad19%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FCSB
1.98
Uta Arad
1.01

FCSB creates 96% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

creates per match

FCSB
2.34
Uta Arad
1.21

allows per match

FCSB
0.82
Uta Arad
1.61

finishing

FCSB-0.72scores less
Uta Arad-0.36scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

Uta Arad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FCSB or draw
81%
FCSB or Uta Arad
79%
Draw or Uta Arad
40%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+
36%
Uta Arad wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals
86%
FCSB 2+ goals
59%
FCSB 3+ goals
31%
Uta Arad 1+ goals
64%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
27%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)
76%
Uta Arad (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.82 · 13 matches

Uta Arad away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.61 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 2.34 + Uta Arad defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.98

Uta Arad attack 1.21 + FCSB defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

FCSB scores more
60%
level
21%
Uta Arad scores more
19%

FCSB at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: FCSB 3–0 Uta Arad

FCSB beat Uta Arad 3-0 in Liga I on December 5, 2020.

The match was played at Arena Naţională in Bucureşti.