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FCSB vs Rapid — Liga I 2018

FCSB
FCSB
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Rapid
Rapid
4/20/2024Liga ILiga I · Championship Round - 5Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

FCSB48%
×Draw25%
Rapid27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FCSB
1.55
Rapid
1.10

FCSB creates 41% more chances

Season form · 154 home / 99 away

creates per match

FCSB
1.84
Rapid
1.21

allows per match

FCSB
0.99
Rapid
1.26

finishing

FCSB+0.00on par
Rapid+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

Rapid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FCSB or draw
73%
FCSB or Rapid
75%
Draw or Rapid
52%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+
24%
Rapid wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals
79%
FCSB 2+ goals
46%
FCSB 3+ goals
20%
Rapid 1+ goals
67%
Rapid 2+ goals
30%
Rapid 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)
64%
Rapid (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.99 · 154 matches

Rapid away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 1.84 + Rapid defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.55

Rapid attack 1.21 + FCSB defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FCSB scores more
48%
level
25%
Rapid scores more
27%

FCSB at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FCSB 2 – 2 Rapid

FCSB and Rapid drew 2-2 in Liga I on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Arena Naţională in Bucureşti.