FCSB 2–1 FC Voluntari: Result & Stats | Liga I

FCSB

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC Voluntari

H. Gnohéré 76', 52'

A. Tudorie 85'

10/27/2018

Liga I · Round 13Arena Națională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

FCSB54%

×Draw24%

FC Voluntari22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FCSBExpected goals in this matchFC Voluntari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.99

FCSB

1.70

FC Voluntari

0.99

FCSB creates 72% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 118 away

1.84

creates per match

1.02

0.97

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

FCSB

1.84

FC Voluntari

1.02

allows per match

FCSB

0.97

FC Voluntari

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FCSB+0.00on par

FC Voluntari+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

FC Voluntari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

FCSB or draw

78%

FCSB or FC Voluntari

76%

Draw or FC Voluntari

46%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+

30%

FC Voluntari wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals

82%

FCSB 2+ goals

51%

FCSB 3+ goals

24%

FC Voluntari 1+ goals

63%

FC Voluntari 2+ goals

26%

FC Voluntari 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)

71%

FC Voluntari (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.97 · 157 matches

FC Voluntari away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.55 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 1.84 + FC Voluntari defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.70

FC Voluntari attack 1.02 + FCSB defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FCSB scores more

54%

level

24%

FC Voluntari scores more

22%

FCSB at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

A. Ciucur← G. Malfleury

52'

H. Gnohéré↳ F. Tănase

71'

N. Kabasele← R. Gadze

73'

O. Moruţan← F. Coman

76'

H. Gnohéré↳ R. Benzar

80'

A. Tudorie← A. Belahmeur

82'

A. Jakoliš← B. Planić

84'

R. Rusescu← H. Gnohéré

85'

A. Tudorie↳ I. Gheorghe

Possession

Shots

Statistics

FCSBFC

Overview

51%Possession49%

7Total Shots5

5Corners7

16Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots5

3On Target4

4Off Target1

Passing

51%Possession49%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls11

0Red Cards0

4Offsides3