FCSB 1–0 FC Botosani: Result & Stats | Liga I

FCSB

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Botosani

F. Coman 78'

12/19/2022

Liga I · Round 21Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

FCSB70%

×Draw18%

FC Botosani12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FCSBExpected goals in this matchFC Botosani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

0.81

FCSB

2.24

FC Botosani

0.81

FCSB creates 177% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

2.34

creates per match

0.81

0.82

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

FCSB

2.34

FC Botosani

0.81

allows per match

FCSB

0.82

FC Botosani

2.14

-0.72scores less than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

FCSB-0.72scores less

FC Botosani-0.02on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

FC Botosani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FCSB or draw

88%

FCSB or FC Botosani

82%

Draw or FC Botosani

30%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+

46%

FC Botosani wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals

89%

FCSB 2+ goals

65%

FCSB 3+ goals

38%

FC Botosani 1+ goals

56%

FC Botosani 2+ goals

19%

FC Botosani 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)

85%

FC Botosani (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.82 · 13 matches

FC Botosani away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 2.34 + FC Botosani defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.24

FC Botosani attack 0.81 + FCSB defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

FCSB scores more

70%

level

18%

FC Botosani scores more

12%

FCSB at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

B. Omrani← A. Cordea

53'

B. Rusu← D. Miculescu

58'

64'

72'

73'

78'

F. Coman↳ Octavian Popescu

81'

81'

82'

83'

88'

B. Nikolov← Octavian Popescu

88'

P. Petkovski← A. Ivanov

89'

A. Tîrcoveanu← C. Zabou

Possession

Shots

Statistics

FCSBFC

Overview

60%Possession40%

17Total Shots12

7Corners5

11Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots12

6On Target6

8Off Target2

3Blocked4

Passing

60%Possession40%

Goalkeeping

6Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1