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FCSB vs FC Botosani — Liga I 2026

FCSB
FCSB
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FC Botosani
FC Botosani
11/7/2020Liga ILiga I · Round 10Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

FCSB69%
×Draw19%
FC Botosani12%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FCSB
2.19
FC Botosani
0.80

FCSB creates 174% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

creates per match

FCSB
2.34
FC Botosani
0.78

allows per match

FCSB
0.82
FC Botosani
2.05

finishing

FCSB-0.72scores less
FC Botosani-0.05on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

FC Botosani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FCSB or draw
88%
FCSB or FC Botosani
81%
Draw or FC Botosani
31%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+
45%
FC Botosani wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals
89%
FCSB 2+ goals
64%
FCSB 3+ goals
37%
FC Botosani 1+ goals
55%
FC Botosani 2+ goals
19%
FC Botosani 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)
85%
FC Botosani (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.82 · 13 matches

FC Botosani away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.05 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 2.34 + FC Botosani defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.19

FC Botosani attack 0.78 + FCSB defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

FCSB scores more
69%
level
19%
FC Botosani scores more
12%

FCSB at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: FCSB 4–1 FC Botosani

FCSB beat FC Botosani 4-1 in Liga I on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Arena Naţională in Bucureşti.