FCSB 2–1 Dinamo Bucuresti: Result & Stats | Liga I

FCSB

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Dinamo Bucuresti

D. Olaru 35'

F. Coman 30'

Gonçalo Gregório 83'

7/22/2023

Liga I · Round 2Stadionul Arcul de Triumf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

FCSB63%

×Draw21%

Dinamo Bucuresti17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FCSBExpected goals in this matchDinamo Bucuresti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.94

FCSB

2.04

Dinamo Bucuresti

0.94

FCSB creates 117% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

2.63

creates per match

1.06

0.81

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

FCSB

2.63

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.06

allows per match

FCSB

0.81

Dinamo Bucuresti

1.46

-0.83scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

FCSB-0.83scores less

Dinamo Bucuresti+0.03on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

Dinamo Bucuresti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

FCSB or draw

83%

FCSB or Dinamo Bucuresti

79%

Draw or Dinamo Bucuresti

37%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+

39%

Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals

87%

FCSB 2+ goals

60%

FCSB 3+ goals

33%

Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals

61%

Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals

24%

Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)

79%

Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.81 · 10 matches

Dinamo Bucuresti away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 2.63 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 2.04

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 1.06 + FCSB defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

FCSB scores more

63%

level

21%

Dinamo Bucuresti scores more

17%

FCSB at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

D. Olaru

FCSB · M

8.3

Match Events

20'

Joyskim Dawa

27'

Ricardo Grigore

30'

F. Coman↳ D. Miculescu

33'

Gorka Larrucea

35'

D. Olaru

46'

A. Cordea← D. Miculescu

46'

A. Compagno← A. Băluță

59'

D. Politic← A. Bani

59'

Gonçalo Gregório← Dani Iglesias

64'

C. Costin← L. Ghezali

71'

M. Edjouma← D. Olaru

77'

Ovidiu Popescu← F. Coman

80'

82'

83'

90+1'

90+5'

E. Rădăslăvescu← D. Đoković

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCSBDinamo

Overview

49%Possession51%

21Total Shots8

2.24Expected Goals (xG)0.93

9Corners1

19Fouls14

Shots

21Total Shots8

6On Target2

8Off Target6

7Blocked0

10Inside Box3

11Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

372Total Passes405

303Accurate Passes338

81%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

19Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: FCSB vs Dinamo Bucuresti

FCSB beat Dinamo Bucuresti 2-1 in Liga I on July 22, 2023.

Goals: F. Coman (30'), D. Olaru (35'), Gonçalo Gregório (83').

Dinamo Bucuresti controlled possession (51%) and registered 8 shots to 21.

The match was played at Stadionul Arcul de Triumf in București.

FCSB vs Dinamo Bucuresti — Liga I 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: FCSB vs Dinamo Bucuresti