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FCSB vs CFR 1907 Cluj — Liga I 2026

FCSB
FCSB
Preview
17:00
CFR 1907 Cluj
CFR 1907 Cluj
1/16/2027Liga ILiga I · Round 21Arena Nationala
Big match
41%
FCSB
model favours
41%26%33%

CFR 1907 Cluj are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 154+ matches

FCSB41%
×Draw26%
CFR 1907 Cluj33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FCSB
1.40
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.23

FCSB creates 14% more chances

Season form · 155 home / 154 away

creates per match

FCSB
1.85
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.47

allows per match

FCSB
0.98
CFR 1907 Cluj
0.95

finishing

FCSB+0.00on par
CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

CFR 1907 Cluj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FCSB or draw
67%
FCSB or CFR 1907 Cluj
74%
Draw or CFR 1907 Cluj
59%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+
19%
CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals
75%
FCSB 2+ goals
41%
FCSB 3+ goals
17%
CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals
71%
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals
35%
CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)
55%
CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.98 · 155 matches

CFR 1907 Cluj away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.95 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 1.85 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.40

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.47 + FCSB defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FCSB scores more
41%
level
26%
CFR 1907 Cluj scores more
33%

FCSB at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 85% of CFR 1907 Cluj’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Even after scoring first, FCSB win only 46%
  • Both teams score in 72% of FCSB’s matches
  • 68% of FCSB’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
FCSB
Balanced
CFR 1907 Cluj
Balanced
52%Possession52%
80%Pass accuracy79%
10.0Shots11.5
1.76xGBiggest gap1.25
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FCSBCFR 1907 Cluj

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
FCSB
5
Draws
2
CFR 1907 Cluj
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 80%
1–42–22–11–13–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
FCSB
WLDDL
Cluj
WDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FCSB face CFR 1907 Cluj (Liga I)

Liga I returns with FCSB hosting CFR 1907 Cluj. Match starts January 16, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FCSB host CFR 1907 Cluj at Arena Nationala.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.